据最新一期的《British Medical Journal》杂志报道，预计从2010年起至2050年，吸烟引起的肺结核死亡人数增加4000万。
研究的主要负责人，加州大学的Sanjay Basu博士使用了一种数学模型来计算吸烟对未来肺结核人数增长率的影响。结果发现从2010年至2050年，吸烟将新增加1800万新的肺结核病患者。
本研究中使用的数学模型在之前也曾用于HIV检测、肺结核检测和药物抗性的研究中。
这项研究纳入了占全世界几乎五分之一人口的吸烟人群，包括吸烟最流行和烟草贩卖最盛行的国家，结果显示从2010年至2050年，全世界范围内吸烟引起的肺结核死亡人数将从6100万增加到1亿零100万。并且还发现如果这种吸烟的传统持续下去，肺结核人数将从整体上的2亿5600万增至2亿7400万——这意味着增加了额外1800万的人数。
根据Basu的模型，非洲、东部地中海和亚洲东南部区域的肺结核患者增长数量将达到最高。作者在论文中同时呼吁：如果能有效的抑制目前吸烟人数的增加，在2050年将能有效避免2700万人死于吸烟所引起的肺结核疾病。（生物探索 Jun）
相关英文论文摘要：
Projected effects of tobacco smoking on worldwide tuberculosis control: mathematical modelling analysis
Objectives Almost 20% of people smoke tobacco worldwide—a percentage projected to rise in many poor countries. Smoking has been linked to increased individual risk of tuberculosis infection and mortality, but it remains unclear how these risks affect population-wide tuberculosis rates.
Design We constructed a state transition, compartmental, mathematical model of tuberculosis epidemics to estimate the impact of alternative future smoking trends on tuberculosis control. We projected tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality in each World Health Organization region from 2010 to 2050, and incorporated changing trends in smoking, case detection, treatment success, and HIV prevalence.
Results The model predicted that smoking would produce an excess of 18 million tuberculosis cases (standard error 16-20) and 40 million deaths from tuberculosis (39-41) between 2010 and 2050, if smoking trends continued along current trajectories. The effect of smoking was anticipated to increase the number of tuberculosis cases by 7% (274 million v 256 million) and deaths by 66% (101 million v 61 million), compared with model predictions that did not account for smoking. Smoking was also expected to delay the millennium development goal target to reduce tuberculosis mortality by half from 1990 to 2015. The model estimated that aggressive tobacco control (achieving a 1% decrease in smoking prevalence per year down to eradication) would avert 27 million smoking attributable deaths from tuberculosis by 2050. However, if the prevalence of smoking increased to 50% of adults (as observed in countries with high tobacco use), the model estimated that 34 million additional deaths from tuberculosis would occur by 2050.
Conclusions Tobacco smoking could substantially increase tuberculosis cases and deaths worldwide in coming years, undermining progress towards tuberculosis mortality targets. Aggressive tobacco control could avert millions of deaths from tuberculosis.
英文论文原文地址：https://www.biodiscover.com/news/healthcare/library/1312
