近日来自中科院动物研究所的研究人员在国际学术期刊《PLoS综合》发表了题为“Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis”的研究论文，证实百年来全球变暖导致了入侵物种定居速度加快。
全球变暖导致灰熊加速入侵北极熊栖息地
文章的通讯作者是中科院动物所动物进化与系统学重点实验室的张润志研究员，黄顶成博士为论文的第一作者。该项研究得到中科院百人计划、农业部和国家自然科学基金项目的资助。
近百年来，外来入侵昆虫在全球范围内的定居速度逐步加快。这种趋势虽然与日益增长的国际贸易导致的物种引入密切相关，但与环境变化的相关性被关注不够。为了更好地了解和控制生物入侵，阐明全球变暖与入侵物种定居速度变化的关系就非常重要，尤其是昆虫等变温入侵动物。
动物研究所张润志研究员领导的外来物种鉴定与控制研究组发现1900-2005年中国大陆入侵昆虫定居速度与气温升高呈显著相关性。通过对英国和美国相关数据分析，也证实了与中国存在显著的一致性。由此确定了气温变化与入侵物种数量增加的相关关系模型，发现：大气温度每升高1℃，入侵物种的数量每10年增加5种。
全世界生物入侵的历史证明，快速发展的国际贸易直接导致了物种被携带到新的生态系统，而全球变暖却直接影响了物种成功定居并造成入侵危害。这一研究结果充分说明，在制定外来入侵物种控制的策略和政策过程中，需要考虑到完全变暖的重要影响。
生物探索推荐英文论文摘要：
Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis
Background The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects.
Methodology/Principal Findings We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States.
Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions.
