按照适者生存的理论，动物总能找到自己的出路以适应外部气候的变化，但随着全球气候变暖程度的加剧，为了保护物种的多样性，人类开始思考如何主动帮助动物有管理地迁移到一个更加适宜的生态环境中，这种方式也称为“协助式迁徙”，尽管这种做法在保护团体中引发热烈争论，但部分物种正被迁移出目前的生存区。在日前在线出版的《自然—气候变化》期刊上，研究人员提出了一种全新的量化决策框架，以评估管理迁移物种的最佳时间。
人类开始思考如何主动帮助迁移物种
Eve McDonald-Madden和合作者发现，最佳迁移时间部分取决于物种种群的规模，以及小种群在冒迁移损失风险之前的有利生长时间，匆忙迁移是糟糕的建议。他们也发现，持续提供源栖息地、目标栖息地和种群的信息，会更加有利于管理决策，特别是在气候变化对源栖息地的影响尚不确定的情况下，这些信息有特别的价值。
生物探索推荐英文摘要
Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change
Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13, 14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15, 16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.
