一个国际科研团队对墨西哥的蜥蜴种群进行了数十年的调查后发现，温度上升已造成该国12%的蜥蜴种群灭绝。研究人员还预测，如果全球持续变暖，到2080年时，全球20%的蜥蜴种群将灭绝。
加利福尼亚大学圣克鲁斯分校生物学教授巴里西内尔沃与同事将他们关于墨西哥蜥蜴的野外研究与来自全球各地的其他数据对比后得出上述结论。他们的研究发表在最新一期美国《科学》杂志上。
科学家对墨西哥境内200多个地区的蜥蜴种群所做的详细调查表明，由于温度变化过快，很多蜥蜴所处的环境温度已接近它们所能忍受的温度高限，尤其是在那些低海拔和低纬度的地区。科学家们对全球数据进行汇总后制作了一个全球蜥蜴灭绝风险模型。
基于这一模型，科学家预测，到2050年，大约6%的蜥蜴种群将会消亡；如果无法减缓全球变暖的速度，到2080年时，20%的蜥蜴种群将从地球消失。
推荐原文出处：
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1184695
Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
Barry Sinervo,1,15,* Fausto Méndez-de-la-Cruz,2 Donald B. Miles,3,15 Benoit Heulin,4 Elizabeth Bastiaans,1 Maricela Villagrán-Santa Cruz,5 Rafael Lara-Resendiz,2 Norberto Martínez-Méndez,2 Martha Lucía Calderón-Espinosa,6 Rubi Nelsi Meza-Lázaro,2 Héctor Gadsden,7 Luciano Javier Avila,8 Mariana Morando,8 Ignacio J. De la Riva,9 Pedro Victoriano Sepulveda,10 Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha,11 Nora Ibargüengoytía,12 César Aguilar Puntriano,13 Manuel Massot,14 Virginie Lepetz,15, Tuula A. Oksanen,16 David G. Chapple,17 Aaron M. Bauer,18 William R. Branch,19 Jean Clobert,15 Jack W. Sites, Jr.20
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA.
2 Laboratorio de Herpetología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F., 04510, México.
3 Department of Biology, Ohio University, 131 Life Sciences Building, Athens, OH 45701, USA.
4 CNRS UMR 6553, Station Biologique, 35380 Paimpont, France.
5 Laboratorio de Biología de la Reproducción Animal, Departamento de Biología Comparada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F., 04510, México.
6 Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá, Colombia.
7 Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Miguel de Cervantes No. 120 (Cubículo 30C), Complejo Industrial, C.P. 31109, Chihuahua, México.
8 Centro Nacional Patagónico, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Blvd. Brown 2915, U9120ACD, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina.
9 Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, C/ José Gutiérrez, Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
10 Universidad de Concepción, Dpto. Zoología, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile.
11 Department of Ecology, Institute of Biology, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua S?o Francisco Xavier 524, Maracan? 20550-019, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
12 Instituto de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Medio Ambiente (INIBIOMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro 8400, Argentina.
13 Departamento de Herpetología, Museo de Historia Natural, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Arenales 1256, Jesús María Apdo 14-0434, Lima 14, Perú.
14 Laboratoire Ecologie-Evolution, Université UPMC, CNRS UMR 7625, 7 quai Saint Bernard, 75005 Paris, France.
15 Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS a Moulis USR 2936, Moulis, 09200 Saint-Girons France.
16 Centre of Excellence in Evolutionary Research, Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Post Office Box 35, FI-40014, University of Jyv?skyl?, Finland.
17 School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia.
18 Department of Biology, Villanova University, 800 Lancaster Avenue, Villanova, PA 19085, USA.
19 Bayworld, Post Office Box i13147, Humewood 6013, South Africa.
20 Department of Biology and Bean Life Science Museum, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA.
